Why is the EU beats Trump in the art of agreement?

Keep –Logs informed with free updates

Simply register —vos at Trade Myft Digest: Delivered directly to the inbox.

Like Donald Trump, the EU is proud of its mastery of the art of agreement. The Brussels trademark event is a summit that ends at 3 a.m., and tired negotiators arise with a new complex agreement.

The way to make the EU is almost the opposite of the style of the White House. The President of the United States is impulsive, which moves rapidly, makes extreme demands and is ready to violate all the rules. Europeans are legalistic, methodical and are constantly seeking commitments and commitments.

Trump’s style is brighter and makes better headlines. The EU is deadly, but much more effective.

The question of what kind of Brussels or Mar-Aago Mayhem-Functiona is better than a matter of pride. The future of the world economy could face it. Both the EU and the United States are currently trying to offer new trade agreements. They also need to urgently establish their own differences before the beginning of July, when the 90 -day Trump pause on their “reciprocal” rates with the EU is scheduled.

The EU-EUA trade relationship in goods is considerably larger than the flow between the United States and China. And transatlantic trade in services is also much more intense.

U.S. rates on EU goods are currently 10 percent. But they will be raised up to 20 percent in July. The EU is also affected by 25 percent rates of cars, steel and aluminum, with the threat of later rates for pharmaceuticals.

With much at stake, the European Commission does his best to undo its commercial battle with the Trump administration and to avoid turning it into an ideological struggle or a judgment of force.

But the Brussels bureaucrats have found their Washington counterparts to be baffled. One of the biggest problems is that it is unclear who in Trump’s administration has a real authority to negotiate.

Europeans are offering Buying more American products but cannot accept permanent rates at current levels. Some in Brussels fear that in July the Trump administration will simply extend the current regime for 90 more days of negotiation.

At this point, the EU will have decisions to make. Finally you reproach and what level? The general assumption is that Europeans will feel forced to hit again. The next question is whether the retaliation will be restricted to the goods trade, where the EU has more to lose and its vehicle industry is especially vulnerable.

American technology companies are a much more juicy goal than Harley-Davidsons or Bourbon manufacturers. But the Mandarins of Brussels should also consider the possibility that the Trump administration would respond to the asymmetrically removing technology sanctions by removing North -American troops outside Europe. This would make Europe much more vulnerable to Russian aggression.

Given these unattractive options – and the unforeseen white house – Europeans do what comes naturally: to take their time and move wisely. It’s been a little more than a month since the Trump’s “Liberation Day” rates and a huge amount has changed. The only safe bet is that there will be much more crisis for the next 60 days.

Like the Chinese, Europeans hope to see if the gaps begin to appear on the shelves of the American supermarket. They also know that potential rates in pharmaceuticals, although very painful for Europe, could lead to a reaction in the United States, as essential medicines are firing in price.

The scenario of the best cases for Europeans is that the Trump’s contradictions and self -harm is becoming more and more evident at the time of July, causing Europe to offer much better agreement than it is currently likely.

The European Commission is determined not to allow all its negotiating energy to be sucked by an exercise in damage to the United States. One of the consequences of Trump’s global fare war is that there is a significant increase in countries that want to negotiate commercial treatment with the EU.

Pyush Goyal, the Indian Minister of Commerce, was in Brussels last week. A new agreement is likely to be signed between the United Kingdom and the EU by the end of this month, erasing some of the most difficult problems that the Brexit is left. United Arab Emirates opened free trade negotiations with the EU a few weeks ago. Trade talks with Australia, long stops, have been restarted. An agreement has already been agreed with the Latin America’s Mercosur block and waits for ratification. China also wants to warm up commercial relations with Brussels, although Europeans will precaution there.

The countries that beat a path to Brussels will find the slow and bureaucratic EU. An agreement that Trump would like to overcome the line in weeks will take years to complete with the EU. On the other hand, as a Australian commercial negotiator says: “The EU good is that if you finally make an agreement with them, you know they will be hooked.”

The EU has already done agreed about double free trade agreements that the USA And it is well located to conclude more. Brussels art of agreement has its own peculiarities and frustrations. But it is considerably more serious and lasting than the Trump version.

gideon.rachman@ft.com