What to look at

Good morning. For an eccentric minority of us, local elections are to decide who we think will best represent our interests locally. But for most people who vote in them, they are an opportunity to express a vision of the day’s government in a safe and controlled environment.

What happens in today’s election is not a prediction or a guarantee of how the holidays will go out in an election in four to five years, but it is a health check, which feel joy or alarm. Some thoughts about a couple of things to keep in mind as the results are launched in the coming days.

Great expectations

Don’t focus too much on winners

When, like each survey, the holding of the Council and the conversation I have with nationally voters suggest, there are three to five equivalent force parties that climb for power, the first post-post system in the United Kingdom essentially becomes a launch of coins.

Everyone hopes that the conservatives will do it very badly, and almost certainly they will do so, although they gather the policy of various parties and our election model, they could really do much better than expected when it comes to starting results.

Ditto, everyone hopes that the work will do it wrong, and it will probably do it, but I could do it much better than it was expected because, in the same way, when everyone surveyed in the 1920’s, anything could happen.

Instead, monitor the health of blocks

Both in the Keir Starmer election and a labor leader and last year’s general election, it was called to see the will of work, the Democratic liberals and the green voters (in particular the voters of the work and the liberal Democrats) to treat the three parties as essentially fungible. As an excellent graph of Paula Surridge (also activated Here Bluesky of Paula) The shows, the work, the Democrats and the green voters in England “liked” the three parties almost the same quantities.

This is part of what was behind some of the massive swings in the three parts and that is why the conservatives lost so badly.

Much of what Downing Street has done is based on the idea that the three -party block or progressive will meet thanks to the fear of Kemi Badenoch or the reform. Downing Street has strengthened and irritated the voters in this blog, but also Badenoch and Nigel Farage have made strength to scare them. Let’s look, then, what are the voters on the left who are the voters on the left to continue to treat these three parts as a fungible now that one of them is in government and two of them are not.

Now try this

I am currently reading and enjoying the 2017 novel by Joshua Cohen Moving Kings. Max Liu’s The review is here to wake up your appetite.

Most important stories today

• Freebie Jeebies ; Rachel Reeves is below Parliamentary Watchdog Research For allegedly not having adequately registered a gift, the most recent of a series of shameful episodes for the Chancellor of the United Kingdom.

• It takes a tougher action to “Finflucencers” ; The UK Financial Watchdog calls on large technology groups to do more Stop the “Whack-a-Mole” people problem Changing between social media accounts to continue promoting unauthorized financial schemes or companies.

• Block on the way ; The EU is threatening with time-limiting any agreement Eliminate the red ribbon from the United Kingdom food and drink exports through the channel unless it has long -term access to the British fishing waters.

• Promise of the Break Bank ; The United Kingdom is raised Reduce your almost 2 million £ 2 million At a fund of the World Bank for Development Nations, according to the people known to the official plans, in a play that could see that the help was decreased alongside Donald Trump’s White House, reported Philip Aldrick de Bloomberg.