UK immigration debate must drop the game game

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Roula Khalaf, publisher of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The writer is director of British Future, a Think-Tank

Is immigration just a game of numbers? Should not be. The white book planned on Monday offers the Government the possibility of changing the debate in the United Kingdom. But you can miss the opportunity.

The instinct of the government of Sir Keir Starmer would be to balance between politically useful messages and rational politics. Labor wants to do the old conservative ministers for a loss of control, after clean entrances reach an unprecedented peak of 900,000 annually in 2023. But he must also show that he has viable solutions that populist adversaries are missing.

The dramatic benefits of the United Kingdom Reform in local elections have diluted, however, the government’s confidence in reformulating the debate on immigration. Westminster’s mood music reveals that ministers are mainly on the success of the right to turn the policy debate into a rhetorical auction on how low net migration numbers should pass.

There are ironies that the work is trapped in this game of numbers. Documented immigration has actually fallen around a third Ever since the party won the election last July. But it seems to be the best kept secret in Britain. The white book will be followed, days later, by the Office of National Statistics that produce the first Net Holder Migration figure that covers the post -election period. The data available publicly already show that 460,000 less visa was issued by 2024 than by 2023, but with the claims of asylum in the United Kingdom, 25,000 increase, the largest global fall in the immigration number has gone unnoticed.

Net migration by 2025 probably already operates around half of the 730,000 figures that the work inherited by 2024. But the work is in the curious position of saying that it is still too high while it does not want to identify a sustainable level because it opposes its own net migration goal.

These goals are confronted with sensitive objections, no less than previous governments would always miss them. And the ministers do not want a unique policy that adapts to everything: try attract scientists From Donald Trump, America is a new policy goal, for example. But there is a short -term tactical reason to want to turn the white book as tough: The work needs something to compensate for any result of the EU’s “reset” summit at the end of this month, which could involve a youth mobility scheme.

What would be a more trusting rethinking of immigration debate? Ministers could argue that they manage numbers downhill, but in a balanced manner, choosing immigration where workers needed to fulfill growth and NHS work missions, but with an eye in a proper supply of homes and cost-benefit analysis by treasury. An immigration plan published, presented to Parliament, would take elections and commitments explicit.

Anthony Albananese’s Australian Labor Government did so only in its migration strategy in December 2023, balanced control and contribution, defending humanitarian routes while promoting citizenship. Reduced the numbers after a post-paid increase. The opponents lost their credibility and, possibly, the recent general election asking that the net migration would fall from 100,000 as they ruled out the means to reach this number.

UK Voters prioritize controlAnd the crossings of canals are a powerful symbol of the lack. So a new agenda has to assert that Britain should decide on immigration to meet our interests and values, with a more orderly and human way of managing asylum claims between the United Kingdom and France. It must emphasize the contribution, with a proactive plan to manage the impact of immigration in a fair way, both for the existing communities and communities. Actively promoting integration and citizenship is better than adding new obstacles.

Be trapped in the game of net migration numbers, where it is always better, risks distracting starmer from the key challenges of contribution and control.