Trump Whiplash Jolls Ai

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If there is a doubt that geopolitics has played a small role in the fortunes of the U.S. Artificial Intelligence Industry, you see no more than the recent rise in the Fortunes of the main Nvidia chip maker.

The value of the company’s bag has just exceeded more than half a trillion in a week in the United States politics, which seemed to the needs of companies and the country. At first glance, it may seem like a strong “purchase” signal for us, but the Whiplash effect on technological stocks in the erratic months of Trump’s White House makes this optimism premature.

The hot streak of the chip maker in Wall Street began with the news that the new administration was about to suspend measures designed to curb the propagation of the advanced AI worldwide. The so -called AI dissemination rule, announced late in Biden’s presidency and this week, would have restricted the free sale of Ai technologies that are most sensitive to 18 Allies in the United States.

Most other countries, sent to the state of “Tier Two”, would have had access only to a limited supply of AI chips. It is important to note that models for avant -garde models would also have been banned from export to these countries, maintaining the training and operation of the AI ​​in a narrow circle of countries. The lifting of these restrictions not only aims to possible new markets for US technology, but also to give us companies in a freer hand in deciding the optimal location for their operations, perhaps even leading to advanced AI offshoring.

This news was followed earlier this week with a significant reduction in the serious import rates imposed last month in China. One day later, and timed to match a visit to Trump’s Middle East, Nvidia’s actions won another major lift as a company announced A great offer to sell their chips from the most advanced data center in Saudi Arabia.

North -American politics in directions that seem to favor their companies in the most important thing, it seems a welcome relief for Silicon Valley. However, far from being resolved, the main parts of the technology policy of the new administration are now officially in the air. This leaves them vulnerable to horse trade between different groups of interest in the White House, as well as the President’s whim.

The areas of uncertainty include what will be a rule of dissemination of the replacement AI. The new administration may have shown an opening in countries such as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, which is now also online for a large lot of Nvidia chips, but it is still proposed what additional restrictions are needed to prevent the re -export of China -sensitive United States technology.

At the same time, that appears Work on a new full -fledged fare regime for semiconductors. And export restrictions on direct sales of AI chips in China are still a moving goal. One month ago, Nvidia Market lid reduced $ 370 million in just three negotiation sessions after the last controls on its sales in China. This was a Nadir for his actions, that is, the most favorable movements in Washington who have since helped send the price almost 40 percent.

At least the Middle East signal this week has been that the United States is very open to an unrestricted AI business with its favored allies, and their technology companies have shown that they are more than ready to overcome any open door. Countries like Saudi Arabia have a long way to develop the broader technological skills and abilities that they aspire to, but at least have abundant energy and cash supplies.

The prospects for opening other markets are more difficult to predict. As the United States tries to reach a number of new trade agreements, there is a risk that access to its advanced technology will become a single pawn that will sink into negotiations.

In the meantime, north -American technological investors can take an additional Washington Choir warning For international customers who do not buy the latest chips at the Ascend Data Center in Huawei. In practice, there is not much sign that it is a market yet for these chips outside China. To judge by the rhythm of recent advances, it will probably not always be the case. At some point, AI models open to operate with a more advanced generation of Chinese IA chips could represent a viable alternative to global markets. The question, at the moment, will be if Washington has done enough to incorporate his homemade and all the markets that matter.

richard.waters@ft.com