Trump obtained a strong work report but not the way he necessarily wanted

• A more detailed look at April work data He suggests that it may be more to testify to the resilience of the United States economy than a guarantee of the economic plan of President Donald Trump. However, the variable income markets breathed a sigh of relief as the recession feared to relieve, which could give the administration further the leverage in the coming commercial negotiations.

Fare uncertainty Did not prevent the wide expected Friday Report of jobs From the heavy expectations of Wall Street, and President Donald Trump seeks to claim victory. Stephen Mirancontinued the President’s maximum economic advisor Bloomberg Television To celebrate the “Trump’s second work” after the row “after the economy added 177,000 jobs in April, well above the 135,000 markets of payroll additions were expected.

Many economists and investors warn the the worst impacts However, rates are still on the horizon, if the administration does not find a Leaves ramp Soon. In the meantime, a more detailed look at job data suggests that it may be more than a testament to the resilience of the United States economy than a guarantee of the President’s economic plan.

For example, Trump’s rates are apparently aimed at, at least in part, in the reconstruction of America industrial baseand the President signed a executive order His first day in office asking for deregulation to “untie” the North -American Energy.

On Friday, however, the Office of Labor Statistics informed The occupation showed little or no change in industries such as manufacturing, construction, mining, quarry and oil and gas extraction.

In contrast, most of the new jobs came from industries that do not necessarily reflect the priorities of the administration. The healthcare sector added 51,000 jobs in April, while the Private Education and Health Services component represented 70,000 new hires, despite fears of federal funding for the two industries.

And although the Department of Efficiency of the Elon Musk Design Department has taken a chainsaw To the federal workforce, with the sector that lost 9,000 jobs in April and 26,000 since January, government jobs grew in 10,000 as a state and local contracting more than compensating for the DOGE cuts.

These nuances did not prevent the administration from holding the report.

“Wages continue to increase and the participation of the labor force increases,” said White House Secretary Karoline Leavitt. Fortune. “This is exactly what we want to see. More north -Americans who work for higher wages. There are more gains!”

Average hourly revenue grew 0.2% in April, below the 0.3% forecast of Wall Street; The annual salary growth was 3.8%, without changes from March.

Good and bad news for Trump

The signs that the labor market is still strong, but suggests that Trump is unlikely to achieve his way when it comes to interest rates. Shortly after the report’s publication, the President published Social truth to demand that the Federal reservation trim their type of policy To reduce loan costs for North -Americans.

Most of Wall Street, however, saw the data as cement in the “wait and see” approach to the Central Bank. The FED is almost guaranteed to keep the rates constant when it meets next week, and most traders anticipate the same in June before reduced 25 bases in July, according to the CME Group. Fedwatch tool.

Traders also reduced their bets on FED’s rates through the sale of obligations, which would become more attractive to the new debt if the Central Bank decreases interest rates. The 2 -year treasure performance, which increases as the bail price falls and is closely linked to the federal fund rate, increased approximately 13 basic points from Friday afternoon. He told Jay Hatfield, the CEO of the Capital Management of the Infrastructure Fortune The possibilities of reducing the June rate seemed remote.

“The only thing that will do them out of time, because they are all the economists in the labor market, is a weakening of the labor market,” he said about the Fed.

Of course, a good job report cannot be bad news for the president. After all, there are still no signs of tariff stress that affect the labor market, said Jamie Cox, a managing partner of the Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Virginia.

“If you want to start in a trade war and your economy is based on consumption, this is the leverage you want,” he wrote on a note Friday.

The stock market, which still comes from an induced rate free fall Earlier this month, he breathed a sigh of relief. The S&P 500 increased by around 1.5% Friday afternoon.

“If the labor market is maintained and the Trump administration resorts to the most serious rates, the economy could make a profound recession,” Jeffrey Roach, an economist in chief of the runner and head of LPL Financial wealth, wrote on a note on Friday.

However, when it comes to Trump taxes on imports, many economists warn that most economic impacts still have to play. For example, Friday’s payroll data show that transport and warehouse had added 29,000 workers in April. Some economists this time attributed importers to the goods before the highest rates came in. Torsten Sløk, chief economist of the private capital giant Apollo, massive dismissals could reach the industry this month in the middle of a Dramatic slowdown In global transport, particularly between the United States and China.

“It would be surprising that the salaries of the sectors of logistics, manufacture and retail selling were understood by the fall of the decrease in merchandise entering the United States ports over the coming weeks,” wrote Samuel Tombs, a United States economist in Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote on Friday.

This could begin to appear in the next month’s report.

This story originally presented to Fortune.com

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