Trump and the art of the International Peace Agreement

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Giving up the work of the World Police is harder than it seems. When the struggle between India and Pakistan last week, the first reactions of Trump’s administration’s main figures were in line with the “America First” principles.

JD Vance said that the United States was not involved in a conflict that “was not our business essentially.” The Vice President of the United States continued: “We cannot control these countries … America cannot tell the Indians to put their arms. We cannot tell the Pakistanis to put their arms.” President Donald Trump vaguely commented that the two countries would “find out in one way or another.”

This high indifference did not survive much. As the fighting between India and Pakistan intensified, with Pakistan leaving heavy evidence of nuclear weapons, the main North -American officials, including Vance, reached the phones. When a Ceasefire was announced, Trump hurried to claim credit. (It’s not surprise there.)

The exact role of the United States when negotiating a ceasefire – and if it will remain – will be kept in open questions. But the whole episode is a reminiscence of a famous phrase by Madeleine Albright: America is the “indispensable nation”.

Albright, who served as Secretary of State under Bill Clinton, is exactly the type of “globalist” liberal internationalist despised by the “America First” crowd that has gathered around Trump.

There is an argument that is not only ironic, but also in some way inevitable, that Trump and Vance ended at the place that Albright scored. They are directing a superpower and, as the foreign policy thinker said, Robert Kagan: “Superpower do not retire.”

It is possible that if Trump and Vance had stuck to their initial instincts and remained apart from the Indian-Pakistan conflict, the United States would not have undergone significant consequences. But in the end, they were not ready to risk it.

Whether Trump and Co they really aspire to “retirement”, or simply use American power in different ways, it is not clear either. Sometimes they talk about washing -the hands of vexatory foreign disputes. At other times, it is about promoting the economic interests of the United States.

The autonomous “containers” that have gathered around Vance, in particular, are truly considered to be pacifiers, despite the threats of the administration for Greenland and Panama. As for Trump himself, his self -image as a trading teacher extends not only to trade, but also to war and peace.

Last week the President finally had the opportunity to claim credit for commercial and peace agreements. Britain and the United States signed a truce in the trade war that Trump had begun. And Pakistan and India stopped their fatal exchanges.

In diplomacy, as in trade, the following question is whether last week’s offers will be shown to be unique. Or if Trump can finally make their claims well to be a trading teacher.

Until now, under Hoopla and Self -promotion, Trump Administration has advanced very little in the search for peace agreements. The cessation of Gaza cessation that the United States negotiated in January has been broken down. The Israeli government is apparently considered to have Carte Blanche to combat war as appropriate, including the provision of food supply and humanitarian relief in Gaza.

Trump can use your visit to the Middle East this week to try to resuscitate some kind of peace plan for Gaza. But the possibilities of success seem scarce, even when the situation on the ground becomes more and more desperate.

In Gulf, Trump will also have to relate to the issue of Iran. Israel is pushing for a military strike against the Iranian nuclear program, even when Washington tries to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with Tehran. The question of whether an Israeli attack can be illuminated, which would almost inevitably throw in the United States, is emerging as the central division of foreign policy within the Trump administration.

Here the containers, led by Vance, seem to win the upper hand in arguing military action. The dismissal of Mike Waltz, the United States National Security Advisor, was once for the Government of Netanyahu. But the idea of ​​attacking Iran continues to return. A prominent container says: “I call Monday,” stop the war with Iran’s Day “, because this is how it starts every week.”

And then there are efforts to negotiate a cessation of fire between Russia and Ukraine. Again, the Trump administration has found frustrating the realities of diplomacy. Last week, in Washington, I saw Vance complained that the Ukrainians and the Russians spent the first half hour of any conversation sending their grievances.

Negotiator goes to Trump is Steve Witkoff, A real estate tycoon, at the same time in charge of the end of the Russia-Ukraine War, which deals with the Iranian nuclear program and bringing peace to Gaza. If you have a five -minute replacement, you may also be asked to solve Kashmir.

If Trump’s administration’s foreign policy was not full enough, some nearby observers also fear that China will prepare for a step in Taiwan.

In the face of all these frustrating foreigners, there is a clear temptation for Trump to ignore the outside world and trust the “great beautiful ocean” to keep America in security. But, as last week’s events in southern Asia showed, that’s easier to say than to do it.

gideon.rachman@ft.com