The winners and losers of Donald Trump’s trade agreement with Britain

United States and the United Kingdom leaders greeted the commercial pact signed between the two parties on Thursday as a “historical”, but experts warned that the United Kingdom is still confronted with the highest rates in exports to the United States that before Donald Trump took office.

While the world 10 percent rate imposed by Trump in April continues to be in its place, the United Kingdom gained major concessions on steel and auto rates That Trump had increased an additional 25 percent in February and March.

In return, the UK It granted the United States a greater access for beef, ethanol and industrial products, which worries that the British market could risk with North -Americans.

United Kingdom negotiators avoided entering politically contentious areas, such as reducing the Digital Services Tax in the United Kingdom, opening health markets to American companies, or making changes to the United Kingdom’s food standards to allow products such as chlorine washed chicken and hormone-treated beef.

Mattia di Ubaldo, a lead researcher in international trade at the University of Sussex, said that the agreement left the United Kingdom in a “significantly worse position” in its bilateral commercial terms with the United States a year ago, but now with a competitive advantage against some other countries.

Economy

Economists said that the agreement would bring relief to the industries with a higher risk of rates, but would make no difference in the general economic perspectives of the United States or the United Kingdom. They suggested that the United States would also struggle to make significant agreements with other countries.

Limited relief of automobile and steel and aluminum rates would “move away” to the United States effective rate, but the average rate was still in double digits, striking North -American consumers, Michael Pearce told the Oxford Economics consulting.

“We do not expect this to have a significant impact on the overall GDP of the United Kingdom,” said Peder Beck-Friis, a PIMCO economist. “The policy of fiscal constipation and (Bank of England) are still more important drivers of perspectives.”

Paul Dales, an economist in the United Kingdom of Economic Capital, said that the United States effective import rate in the United Kingdom would be around 11 percent as a result of the agreement, much more than 1 % existing last year. This was a 13 percent improvement that preceded the Thursday agreement, but it depended a lot on the future measures of the United States on critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals.

Cautine

British automobile executives welcomed the agreement, which ravaged a 27.5 percent potential tariffs to 10 percent of the first 100,000 cars sent from the United Kingdom.

The new quota represents almost all 101,870 vehicles exported to the United States last year, according to the Society of Motor and Traders Manufacturers.

“The application of these rates was a severe and immediate threat to automobile exporters in the United Kingdom, so this agreement will provide a very necessary relief,” said SMMT’s CEO Mike Hawes.

Adrian Mardell, CEO of Jaguar Land Rover, the largest car exporter in the United Kingdom in the United States, described the agreement as “significant progress” to offer “the certainty we need to continue investing forward.”

But he warned that “this is not done for the United Kingdom”, hoping that future negotiations would further reduce rates.

“He is not without his challenges, he is manageable,” another executive said.

Although the Britain’s vehicle industry is highly dependent on European exports, cars are the largest export article in the United Kingdom to the United States, counting sales worth £ 6.4 million. It is also the largest market for high -end brands such as JLR’s Range Rover, as well as Bentley and McLaren, which have no manufacturing footprint in the United States.

Aerospace

The United Kingdom also reached an agreement that will allow Rolls-Royce to export its engines to the United States “without fare”, although executives said that they were still waiting for all aerospace parts to be exempt.

Actions in Rolls-Royce increased 3.6 percent after the news. Meanwhile, actions from the North -American -Americans’ manufacturer increased by 2.8 percent on Thursday after U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said that an UK airline acquired a value of $ 10 million on the company’s planes. British Airway’s owner, IAG, was on Thursday night closing an agreement to buy Boeing 787 aircraft, confirmed the people who knew the agreement.

The aerospace industry, a large steel and aluminum user, has precipitated to adjust to the Trump trade war, with higher costs that are already filtered through its integrated supply chains.

Kevin Craven, CEO of ADS, the Aerospace and Defense Commerce body, said that, while the 10 % base of the rate “would remain in its place, the elimination of additional rates on steel and aluminum is a significant achievement.”

“Removing the rates on motors and aerospace parts is also a very welcome news, although we expect more specific details,” he added.

Agriculture and food

Farmers welcomed the United Kingdom Government’s commitment to maintain British eating standards and achieve reciprocal access to beef trade, but warned that a flood of ethanol in the United Kingdom could affect farmers.

The White House said that the agreement would “significantly expand” access to the North -American market in the United Kingdom, citing a $ 700 million opportunity for ethanol exports and a $ 250 million opportunity for other agricultural products such as beef.

“Our greatest concern is that two agricultural sectors have been distinguished to assume the strong burden of eliminating the rates of other industries in the economy,” said Tom Bradshaw, President of the National Union of Farmers in the United Kingdom.

The NFU said that biofuels were “extremely important” for the cultivated cultivation sector of the United Kingdom. “Fully liberalizing our ethanol market could translate into the loss of this profitable output for our arable producers,” he said. Bioethanol in the United Kingdom occurs mainly from domestic wheat and imported corn.

Downing Street said that the United Kingdom and the United States had agreed to access to the “reciprocal” market in the beef, and farmers in the United Kingdom received a 13,000 metric tonnes without rates.

The White House said that the United Kingdom “unfairly” maintained rates up to more than 125 percent on “meat, birds and dairy products, as well as maintaining standards non-sciences that adversely affect American exports.”

Before Trump imposed his blanket by 10 percent of rates, the United States applied an average agricultural rate of 5 percent to United Kingdom imports, while the average UK rate was 9.2 percent.

The Food and Beverage Federation, the industry deposit for food manufacturers, said that the 10 percent rate would still affect food exporters in the United Kingdom, many of which are smaller companies. The industry sent goods worth 2.7 million pounds in the United States by 2024.

Steel

Weeks after the United Kingdom government entered to save the last steel ovens in Britain, the industry hosted the agreement to make the rates for North -American exports as “very significant”.

In February, weeks after entering the post, Trump had started an agreement between the United Kingdom and the United States with former President Joe Biden and gave the 25 percent rates on all British steel and aluminum imports in the United States.

The United Kingdom Steel, the commercial body, emphasized that some clarifications of the terms of the agreement were still needed, especially if there would be a chain attached for steel to obtain zero tax percent and when the change of rules would come into force.

The United States is the second largest market for Steel exports in the United Kingdom, after Europe. By 2024, the United Kingdom exported 180,000 tonnes of semi-final and ended up steel in the United States, worth £ 370 million. This represents 7 percent of the total steel exports of the United Kingdom per volume and 9 percent for value.

Pharma

The United States has agreed to provide preferential treatment in the United Kingdom on rates imposed as part of Washington’s ongoing research on whether the imports of pharmaceutical and semiconductors threaten national security, according to the United Kingdom.

Starmer greeted the concession as a step that would protect the United Kingdom “anything that happens in the future”, a reference to the fact that Trump still proposes if imposing tariffs on pharmaceuticals.

The agreement also laid the foundations for a future technological collaboration in the United Kingdom in which the United Kingdom could collaborate in sectors such as Biotech, Life Sciences, Quantum Computing, Nuclear Fusion, Aerospace and Space, added London.

Promises have proposed hopes in the pharmaceutical industry that will now avoid the worst impacts of Trump’s future rates, although the sector remains cautious without further details.

“It’s a good progress, but we just have to understand a little more about it,” a figure in the industry said. “All this is a lack of clarity,” another said, however, pointing to the “positive frame”.

Report by Peter Foster, Kana Inagaki, Sylvia Pfeifer, Madeleine Speed, Michael Peel, Gillian Plimmer, Sam Fleming, Delphine Strauss and Philip Georgiadis in London and Andy Bounds in Brussels