The policy of several parties increases the danger of muddy work

Labor has lost the runcorn election by six votes, closest in a choice by election for at least 123 years, and undoubtedly the closest in the history of universal suffrage in the United Kingdom. He has won the western west of England and the mayor of Doncaster.

The reform is in progress to take control of the Staffordshire County Council and has won the Greater Lincolnshire Mayorally. In the meantime, the conservatives suffered losses. Democrats and green liberals have not really stood, but their best perspectives will declare later today.

When you have the policy of several parties and our first system, it becomes a way of choosing who represents you as a roulette wheel. On Tuesday I will have some more reflections on the general image when everything has stated.

Thanks to the many students, students and teachers who came to the policy event yesterday with FT schools. It was a pleasure to know -you all.

For now, some specific thoughts on runcorn and if we are really seeing the end of the “two -party policy”.

Runcorn echoes the past, but this time is different?

The door scores (percentages, not raw votes, as it is the change of voting quota worth thinking of specific elections):

Reform: 38.3 percent (+20.2 percent)

Job 38.3 percent (-14.7 percent)

Conservative 7.1 percent (-8.9 percent)

Green 7 percent (+0.6 percent)

The liberal Democrats of 2.9 percent (-2.2 percent)

Runcorn is a family story in British politics: A current government that is unpopular experiences a secondary choice in circumstances that are, to put it slightly, quite unfortunate. (In case you have forgotten, the previous Labor Member hit a boy.That)

Looking at the main voters of the opposition party, they have passed “no, thank you” and have achieved a third. The amazing effectiveness of the Democratic-Liberal vote of the labor has remained, while the Greens, always the most flying bit of this blog in the last parliament, have hardly advanced.

In isolation, I would think of this, think of the liberal Democratic actions against the new work during the 1990’s and 2000’s, to the actions of the Liberal/SDP alliance against Margaret Thatcher, and you would do “ this is what happens when the government of the day is unpopular, but the official opposition has not convinced people. ” And, historically speaking, this would mean that this is the result that the government of the day increases well, because when the real general elections take place and it ceases to be a “I am not dissatisfied, and/n?” and “as I feel about it specific change? “Then it would favor the current government.

But there are a couple of reasons to think that it can be very different this time. The first is in the long term: with the exceptions of 2017 and 2019, when the Brexit gave the voters a good incentive to polarize, the long-term election trajectory in the United Kingdom has been to more parties and more swing voters. We are more fragmented in our private life and entertainment, and therefore it makes sense that we can now be more permanently fragmented in our electoral behavior.

The second short -term trend is the behavior of the labor government, frankly. It is not to govern as an administration that will react to defeat following a coherent plan to improve the country and dismiss the smaller mishap. It will almost certainly follow a range of measures that have already increased the costs that companies face, from the invoice of the rights of their workers to the increase in business taxes, with the regulation of visa and other measures designed to reduce net immigration. Labor ministers will continue to be shy about the depth and speed of EU-UK reset and on the scale of change needed to turn to the UK’s public services and consolidate their public finances. They will continue to be, like Robert Shrimsley Write in your column this week“In danger of satisfying anyone trying to applaud everyone.”

A government with the right agenda and/or a favorable world economic context could and should flip a result like Runcorn in four years. But since none of these things seem likely to appear at any time, Nigel Farage may be right to see it as the next step of his long march to Downing Street.

Now try this

I saw Giant Last night at the Harold Pinter Theater. The work imagines an encounter between Roald Dahl and his publishers, who have made a joint trip to his home to try to persuade him to emit an apology for anti -Semitic observations made in a review. Literary review. It has a stellar cast, but the star in every way is John Lithgow, who is absolutely fascinating as Dahl.

Although the meeting between Dahl and his publishers (and the specific person represented by his completely invented United States publisher), each word of his review and his interview in the second act is verbal. Michael Coren, who conducted the interview, reflected on this memorable For the new statesman Here while Sarah Hemming’s review of the FT is here.

Most important stories today

• “A new dawn” ; Andrea Jenkyns of the UK reformist party greeted a “new alba in British politics” after a The Victory of Landsades in the first Mayor’s Office of Greater Lincolnshire. “The reconstruction begins here,” said the former conservative deputy after having reached 42 percent of the vote against 26.1 percent of second position of 26.1 percent.

• The party begins ; Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s Chief Chief, will be aware of the results today and is likely to conclude that he is right to follow a “blue work” strategy to address the populist threat: a policy that is already implemented. More information about our political publisher George Parker, the reform counselor, wins here.

• Shocking inequalities in health protection ; The chances of being admitted to the hospital with infectious diseases are dramatically higher in people of certain ethnicitiesFrom particular geographical areas and those living in deprivation, according to the first study of this type by the UK’s health security agency.

• Our Chronicler Brexit is inclined ; Yesterday Peter Foster wrote his last edition of the State of Britain Bulletin, formerly entitled Great Britain after Brexit and the Brexit information. Premium subscribers may Read your reflection In the United Kingdom position in Europe and beyond before Peter goes to cover the world trade in the wake of Donald Trump’s recharging. But the newsletter (Sign up -you here) Will continue under journalists through several briefs.

• Feeling the heat ; They have two unions university students in the UK suspended its Ukrainian societies As they sound if they violated the rules of charity to buy drones that were later sent to support troops fighting Russian soldiers.