Investors awaiting the Fed Powell chair speech, as strong data increases actions worldwide

• The S&P 500 closed 1.47% on Friday but S&P Futures 0.77% pre -open in New York were reduced. Macro revenue and data have been largely stronger than expected for the first quarter, but investors are likely to put everything waiting until the Fed Wednesday’s interest rate decision. Although the Fed is not expected to change the rates, the commentary of the Fed President Jerome Powell will probably move world markets.

The stock market markets in Asia and Europe largely traveled this morning after nine S&P 500 rising negotiation sessions of the United States have dropped by 0.78% this morning, which suggests that some investors could want to sell their recent benefits today.

Recent income has been strong: “With 69% of the S&P 500 companies, 70% are exceeding the earnings of the 1T … and 54% are exceeding revenue estimates”, Jpmorgan chase Analyst Dubravko Lakos-Bujas told customers in a recent note.

More widely, investors keep their breathing due to Wednesday’s decision of interest in the United States Federal Reserve. President Trump has argued out loud that Fed President Jerome Powell should reduce the rate, but smoke signs of the Eccles building suggests that the Central Bank will keep the rates await. As always, it will be your comment and guidance that the markets will move the day.

Here is a snapshot of today’s action:

• FED FRUGS 30 DAYS The market gave a probability of more than 98% of the Fed, keeping the rates awaiting 4.25% to 4.50%.
• The S&P 500 closed 1.47% on Friday but S&P Futures 0.77% pre -open in New York were reduced. (The S&P continues to drop by 3.31% YTD.)
• Elder Asian markets have been this morning with the exception of China, where the CSI 300 It fell by 0.12%.
• It Stoxx Europe 600 increased marginally to early negotiation.
• The United Kingdom FTSE 100 It was closed to observe the holidays of Labor Day.
• Blame Will free his earnings after today’s bell.

Although the Fed is not expected to move interest rates …The Fedwatch Board It has “Hold” with 98%possibility: Powell faces an unviable puzzle: recent earnings and macro data have been strong. Beside the Trump President’s tariff regime, this suggests that inflation can increase upwards, which would require the Fed to increase the rates. However, the data of sentiment and private sector surveys remain dark, and the rates have not reached the real world. This suggests an economic slowdown, which would require the Fed to lower its fees.

If there is no clear direction in any way, the Fed is likely to keep. The most recent public statement of a member of the Federal Committee of Markets Openos was from Beth M. Hammack, President of the Fed Cleveland, who emphasized this feeling. “I think we need to be patient. We want to assure us in the right direction, instead of quickly moving in the wrong direction,” he said, according to a Goldman Sachs search note. Fortune.

Goldman’s main economist Jan Hatzius believes that the Fed could be a bit biased towards the cuts instead of climbing. “Although the FOMC seems to set a higher bar for type cuts than during the 2019 trade war, we do not believe that high inflation would deter it from reduction if the unemployment rate begins to tend as the tariff shock reaches the economy,” the investors told investors.

“Fed’s main problem is the uncertainty of inflation. There is little confidence in what future trade taxes will be. During the night, U.S. President Trump declared a 100% tax on imported films.Mr. Bean It is apparently a threat of national security, “said UBS analyst Paul Donovan.

This story originally presented to Fortune.com