In the epic comeback of Wall Street, unresolved market mysteries abound

It was the week that Wall Street returned his exchange. StockSales of goodAnd Crypto speculative assets to unprofitable technology companies increased.

But beyond the rally of relief, built in the hope that the White House will have inkCommercial offersSoon enough: The financial ecosystem is to blink of warning signs for the tastes of coverage funds and day traders who fall at risk.

The good market signs show the federal reserve in a bond of politics, Imperilence hopes that Jerome Powell & Co. can soften the stroke quickly. The World Reserve currency continues to lose the compass as the money moves into the treasure returns. And the similar schisms are playing in credit and actions, as the oxen defy high failures and earnings estimates.

Although the contradictions of cross -bullying are a regular feature of the commercial landscape, dislocations are worth considering at the time, according to Phil Pecsok, anacapa’s head of investments.

“We really do not know if there will be rates, relief of rates, lower taxes or retaliation. So it is very difficult to achieve the fundamental story,” he said. “No one knows anything. We’re in anyone’s land.”

As fast as the merchants rescued in the midst of President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, they have again stormed, raising North -American stocks in nine sessions in a row, most in two decades. Credit deposits have been strengthened in the middle of a broadcast emission while Bitcoin, which was listed up to $ 77,053 three weeks ago, again trying the six -digit mark.

Behind the access: The speculation that has been heard the worst in Trump’s commercial belligerence and the signs that the United States economy continues to maintain, with Friday data showing the unemployment rate that remains constant at 4.2%.

However, in the subjection of markets, skepticism that calls into question the capital recovery trade of $ 5 trillion in less than two weeks. Anxiety measures throughout the market have been reduced, but they remain high. Even after three weeks fall, Bank of America The Corp World Financial Stress Indicator is well above any level seen in the eight months before the warnings of Trump’s “Liberation Day” on April 2.

A key concern is that merchants charge the risk of conviction that the flexibility of food will be imminent, although market -based inflation expectations have shown only signs of provisional cooling. While derivative traders opted for interest rate cuts after Friday’s work data, they still plan three reductions in 2025, until one in February.

At the same time, inflation exchanges of one year in early April increased to the highest level from 2022 amid concern over the impact of import prices rates. Despite a shooter, they are even more than 70 basic points higher than in January.

To Henry Allen, a macro strategist at German bank AG, this is a disappointment recipe, given that of PowellembarrassmentTon in his April speeches and the experience of 2022, when investors underestimated the FED’s resolution to extinguish prices pressure.

“The markets risk repeating a consistent error in recent years, in the price of a Fed that is very firm compared to what is really happening,” he wrote in a recent note.

Allen also points to the uncomfortable fact that the bond of the dollar with fixed income continues to fade. In theory, it is expected that the American currency appreciated against the euro when the ten-year treasure will produce an increase in relation to Germans comparable or vice versa. This is partly because the most performing assets attract money, reinforcing the attractiveness of the country’s coin. However, this relationship has been fractured since the beginning of April.

At Lawrence Creature, a PrSPCTV Capital LLC fund manager, Greenback’s weakness is a sign that the United States is losing its incidence with world commercial partners, providing 1930 Smoot-Hawley Flashbacks that helped get worse.

“We are now taking steps for babies in this direction,” he said. “We go back in time and adjust this state in which the dollar in the United States is not a safe and safe financial payment.”

The great risk increase also occurs at a time when key foundations are weakening. Economists have been cutting -neGrowth forecastsIn anticipation of a successful trade war, while analysts are reducing their corporate income estimates for this year, and then data collected by Bloomberg Show. In the credit market, high -performance debt risk premiums have entered since the beginning of April, despite the fact that the bankruptcy archives were promoted to a maximum of five years.

Angst also persists in the options market. The CBOE volatility index, a measure of the expected changes of the S&P 500, has seen that its so -called specific prices are kept above the contracts of future six months each session since the end of March. This is the longest investment since the 2020 pandemic crisis. It is a sign that merchants continue to worry about here and now than risk on the road.

All in all, the stubborn friction of Wall Street highlights the time of the political uncertainty of Trump 2.0, according to Maria Vassalou, head of the Pictation Research Institute.

“Since the end of the Cold War, we had a free trade, globalization and peace environment. And all these things change now,” he said. “We are moving in a different balance, which is yet to be defined.”

This story originally presented to Fortune.com

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