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  • To CEO today daily: Geoff colvin on the effect of Trump’s rates on corporate benefits.
  • The great story: The forecasts look at a global recession.
  • The markets: The worst from Covid in 2020.
  • Notes of the analyst of JpMorgan, Wedbush, UBS and Oxford Economics on the risk of economic contraction by virtue of the new world trade rules.
  • More: All the news and chat Fortune.

Nice day. The current world economic chaos, caused by President Trump’s new rates, can be shocking, but it is not new. A similar story was reproduced eight years ago, in Trump’s first term as president. A look at what he did and the repercussions that followed, is an instructional for business leaders, investors and consumers. And it is in no way encouraging.

Unlike his current term, Trump did not immediately launch a trade war. He devoted his first year as president to relieve business regulation and obtain a reduction in historical taxes through Congress. The CEOs were retired. But in January of his second year, he showed why he had declared himself. He imposed tariffs on China and then quickly expanded the rates to more countries. The party was over. Specifically:

The rates helped some north -American companies but also injured thousands of others. For example, Trump imposed tanks on imported steel, very intense for the handful of North -Americans, but a painful increase in costs for thousands of North -American manufacturers using steel. Expand the example of steel in the economy and the result was a hard punch for the benefits. During the first year of Trump in office (2017), before imposing tariffs, the corporate benefits of the United States increased by 8%. In the following five quarters, with fares, the profits were reduced from the inverse, reduced by 1.5%, annualized.

Share prices were taken out. Since the Trump 2016 election until the rates began in January 2018, the S&P 500 increased at an annual rate of 27.3%. But with added rates, the S&P increased only 3.8% annual (January 2018 to November 2019).

CEOs reversed their Trump’s vision. Immediately after Trump won in 2016, the leaders increased their confidence in the measure of the conference council, and the confidence varied slightly up and down around this new level during the first year of Trump in office. But shortly after he declared his commercial wars, CEO confidence fell to levels not seen since the worst days of the financial crisis of 2008-09.

Note that Trump is executing his main economic policies in the inverse order that he followed in his first term. At that time he made the tax bill first, then headed for the rates. Now, after declaring a historical trade war, it will spend much of 2025 on this tax bill, many of which are planned for sunset on December 31. You will try to keep your bill tax cuts and even reduce your taxes even more. If he succeeds, he could currently regain his support from business, investors and consumers. But he is a great “if” and a great “power”. – Geoff Colvin

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Contact CEO daily through Diane Brady at Diane.brady@fortune.com

This story originally presented to Fortune.com



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