CEOs are in a difficult situation and consumers fear work losses in the midst of “stagflation shock,” warning analysts

• Stagfiction is the combination of slow growth and increased inflation and commercial wars are a “stagflation shock”, according to Apollo Global Management. In a new research note co -authorized by the Economist in any Torsten Slok, the firm provides for a sequence of events that could lead to an economic catastrophe.

The recent rate matrix Trump administration has announced to have the potential to trigger a recession in summer 2025, according to a new report of Apollo Global Management.

From the possible sequence of Apollo events, China shipping containers in the United States he slowed down Following the fare address of the release of President Trump this month. Allowing travel time 20 to 40 days, containers sent to American ports could stop in May. In mid -May this would be a quick slowdown Demand of trucksThat would be followed by less stock in stores to buy people. With these signs, this would be slow sales in the spring, while subsequent layoffs for retail and truck could reach the end of May and early June. Then, in summer 2025, a complete recession could take root.

The Apollo report, co-author of the Economist in Cap Torsten Slok, the associate director Rajvi Shah and the associate Shruti Galwankar, paints a bleak economic vision and is essentially a warning that the American economy is quickly at a rate of commercial interruptions.

Signs of warning have already appeared, although Trump’s tariff plan was only announced weeks ago. The Apollo report specifically identifies commercial wars as a source of stagflation shock because they cause economic activity to occur due to supply chain interruptions and minor commercial volumes. At the same time, compensation stops usually increase the cost of imported goods at the same time as they reduce competition. The dreaded stagnant Results of a slower or more stagnant growth and increase in inflation. There has been no Sustained period of the main stagfling in four decades.

Apollo’s research note warns that important indicators of business sentiment are lowering in a short order and the way consumers respond is to serious concern.

Discovering CEO confidence

CEOs Most recent survey The CEO confidence shows a decrease in optimism, with 62% of the main executives who now provide for a slowdown or recession in six months.

DELEGATIONS DELEGATIONS COMPETATIONS PREVED PERGE SERTY RECEIVERS APPROACH OF 9% In March to 14% in April, CEOThe monthly survey was found. In addition, 84% of CEOs declared a planned growth of revenue at the beginning of the year, while only 49% predicted that the revenue would grow in 2025 when delegated directors were re -consulted in April.

Only 9% of CEOs expected a decrease in revenue earlier this year, compared to 44% of the April survey.

A strong fall in CEO optimism joins a similar decline in a positive perspective among consumers.

Crying the feeling of consumers

In a New graph On Sunday, Slok, Apollo’s main economist, said that a new record part of homes only makes minimal payments in credit card balances.

It Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia revealed that credit card balances show signs of “consumer distress”. The percentage of accounts made by the minimum payments reached a maximum of 12 years depending on the FED data, while the crime metrics were close or established.

At the same time, people are becoming more and more concerned with losing their job, according to the Apollo report.

It University of MichiganSocial Research Institute Survey to consumers He saw his index of consumer feeling dropped to 52.1 in April, from 57 March. Around Two thirds of consumers Think that unemployment will increase this year, which is double six months ago, according to the director and economist of the Joanne HSU Institute, which was mentioned in an update.

“In alarming development, consumers are becoming more and more concerned that their perspectives on income can also worse,” he continued.

Less than 50% think that their own income will increase this year, and about two thirds believe that their purchasing power will be reduced in the coming months, revealed the Michigan survey.

This story originally presented to Fortune.com

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