Can anyone replicate the performance of Warren Buffett?

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If it is believed that Warren Buffett, his announcement after the Berkshire Hathaway Saturday’s annual meeting, planning to leave as CEO at the end of the year, was a story for all his family members.

Neither the non -family directors nor the tens of thousands of shareholders gathered in the annual “Woodstock for capitalists” In his native Omaha he had an idea about the precise calendar.

They should probably have done. Their business partner of a long time and side a steer at Omaha meetings, Charlie MungerHe died by 2023, at the age of 99. In February, in its most recent letter to shareholders, Buffet He wrote: “At the age of 94, Greg Abel will not be replaced by Greg Abel (the chosen successor).”

The “bufftologists”, as observers close to their style of each movement, have been speculating and worrying -for at least a quarter of a century. I wrote an analysis entitled “shareholders reflect on life after Buffett” after the 2003 Omaha meeting, when Buffett was a 72 -year -old stripling. I quoted his observation that if he was beginning to “lose (his) marble”, he would be to his family convincing him to leave. “It will probably take the whole family,” he added.

The inevitability of his departure has done nothing to mitigate the shock. Among Buffett’s most devoted fans, it is comparable to the recent death of Pope Francis.

Buffett’s letter to shareholders, although he did not directly refer to Donald Trump’s second term as president, called on “UNCLE SAM” to spend the billions of dollars of taxes that Bershire sends to the United States treasure with judgment: “We never forget that we need to keep a stable currency and this result. need (His emphasis) both wisdom and surveillance on your part. “”

In a time of extraordinary geopolitical and economic change around the world, shareholders of the same question were worried in 2003 still applied: can anyone replicate Buffett’s performance? The basic class of “A” actions of Bershire closed on Friday with a record of $ 809,808.50, 20 percent of the year. When Buffett was in control of what was a trouble textile manufacturer in 1965, actions were worth less than $ 20.

With the self-demo who has always marked him from fellow delegates for self-aging, Buffett has attributed a lot of this success to the “ ovary lottery ” who saw him born white, masculine and relatively well, with the ability and ability to invest in a time in favor of American capitalism. Has compared the effect with a snowball: Alice Schroeder’s excellent 2008 title biography – This “only happens if you are in the right snow type … it is better to be picking up the snow as you go, because you will not rise again to the top of the hill. So life works.”

But this self -analysis undergoes persistence, perfectionism, focus and intellect behind their public people. For example, when he invested Goldman Sachs, helping to travel the investment bank during the financial crisis of 2008, he did so with very favorable terms in Berkshire, exemplifying one of his best known maxims: “ We simply try to be afraid when others are greedy and only be greedy when others are afraid. ”

Likeness good words It is likely to be recycled during whenever the financial markets exist, although we have almost read the last of the wonderful Letters to shareholders They are still the best and best written for life philosophy and buffett’s investment.

The replication of philosophy will, however, be a great challenge. Whatever Greg Abel’s talentSelected by 2021 to deepen the largest shoes in the history of the United States’ investment and the council’s commitment to ensure the same culture and Ethos, Berkshire is no longer the agile vehicle that Buffett and Munger used to drag the undervalued corporate assets in the last quarter of the 20th century. Sometimes they even struggled to find large enough investments to “move the needle” for their shareholders, according to Buffett last year.

However, volatility has always created opportunities. Requesting that he has, in fact, has not lost his marble, buffett leaves behind a vast and grows 348 million dollars. At some point, he said on Saturday, Berkshire would be “bombed with offers that we will be happy that we have cash.”

As Buffett’s snowball stops, its successors have the resources to create a new one. Will they have the impetus, conditions and skills to direct how the wise of Omaha has?

Andrew.hill@ft.com