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Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Summary
The S&P 500 has just delivered its third consecutive monthly decline by 2025 (-2.2% in April, before dividends). But if the historical patterns are true, the negative trend can end in May. The stock market usually increases in May, on average, 1.0% and with a winning percentage of 71%. We note that market returns can exceed 5% six times since 1980, including a 9.2% gain in 2000; And in 2024 it was not bad, at 3.9%. But there have been some clunkers in May, including in 2019 (a painful loss of 6.6%), 2010 (a value value of 8.2%), 2012 (6.0%) and 1984 (5.9%). May starts as a busy month in Wall Street, as companies report income from the first quarter, the non -agricultural payroll report is published and the Federal Reserve holds a meeting. But once retailers make their results in the middle of the month, investors will be left to reflect on trade war perspectives, inflation trends, future federal reserve activities, the risk of recession and the long weekend of the Day Memorial. In front, our forecast for stocks in 2023 has been a bull