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Your guide on what Trump’s second term for Washington, Business and the World means
Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” of supposedly “reciprocal rates” against the rest of the world – Undoubtedly, the proposals for most eccentric commercial policies they have ever done, after a hasty withdrawal under the fire of markets became a trade war with China. This can (or maybe not) have been the one from the beginning. Can Trump then win this war against China? In fact, the United States, as it is now after Trump’s second coming, expect to be successful in their broadest rivalry with China? The answers are “no”. This is not because China is invincible, far away. It is because the United States is throwing all the assets it needs if you want to keep your state in the world against such a huge, capable and determined power as China.
“Commercial wars are good and easy to win,” Trump published In 2018. As a general proposition, this is false: commercial wars hurt both parties. An agreement could be reached that makes the two parties better than before. Most likely, any agreement will make a better side than before and the other worse. The latter type is allegedly expected by Trump: the United States will win; China will lose.
The United States is currently imposing a 145 percent rate on Chinese imports, while China imposes a 125 percent rate in the United States. China has also restricted exports of “rare lands” In the USA. These are very high, effectively prohibitive, barriers to trade. It looks like a “Mexican Stand-Off”, who cannot win, between the two superpowers.
It is an understanding that the United States Plan (if any) is to “persuade” commercial partners to impose heavy barriers to China’s imports in exchange for a trade favorable agreement (and perhaps in other areas, such as security) with the United States. Is this result plausible? Number
One of the reasons is that China also has powerful letters. Many significant powers already make more of their trade with China than with the United States: they include Australia, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea. Yes, the United States is a more important export market than China for many significant countries, partly due to the commercial deficits Trump complains. But China is also an important market for many. In addition, China is a source of essential imports, many of which cannot be easily replaced. After all, imports are the purpose of trade.
Above all, the United States has become unreliable. A “transactional” is that it always seeks a better agreement. No sensible country should bet its future for a partner, especially against China. Trump’s treatment in Canada was the defining time. The Canadians have responded by re -electioning the liberals. Will Trump learn from this? Can a leopard change their spots? This is who he is. He is also a man that US voters have twice chosen. In addition, breaking with China would be risky: China will not forget and is unlikely to forgive.
No less important, China believes that its people can withstand economic pain better than North -Americans. In addition, for this, the trade war is mainly a demand shock, while for the United States it is mainly a supply clash. It is easier to replace the lost demand than the lack of offer.
In short, the United States will not obtain the offers it looks like and the victory over China waiting. My assumption is that as this becomes apparent to the White House, Trump will retire at least partially from his commercial wars, declaring victory, as he advances in some other direction.
However, this does not change the reality that the United States competes with China due to global influence. Unfortunately, the United States that many want to do -well in this are not this We.
In addition, the United States of Trump will not do well. Its population is the fourth part of China. Its economy is of the same size, because it is much more productive. Its influence, cultural, intellectual and political, is even greater than that of China because its ideals and ideas are more attractive. The United States had been able to create powerful alliances with similar countries that strengthen this influence. In short, he has inherited and has been blessed with enormous assets.
Now consider what is happening in the Trump regime: Attempts to transform the rule of right into an instrument of revenge; the dismantling of the United States government; contempt for laws that are the basis of legitimate government; attacks on scientific research and the Independence of the great universities of the United States; Reliable statistics wars; hostility to immigrants (and not only illegal), although they have been the foundations of the success of the United States in all generations; a Direct repudiation of medical science and climate science; a direct rejection of the most basic ideas in the trade economy; an equivalence or (much worse than that) preference for Vladimir Putin, the Russia tyrant, on Volodymyr Zelenskyyleader of Ukraine democratic; and the contempt open for the range of alliances and cooperation institutions on which the global order built in the United States rests. All this is in the hands of a political movement that has adopted the insurrection of January of 2021.
Yes, the world economic order needed improvement. The case that China moves to growth led by consumption is overwhelming. It is also clear that a lot of reform is needed in the United States. But what happens now is not the reform, but the ruin of the foundations of the success of the United States, at home and abroad. It will be difficult to reverse the damage. It will be impossible for people to forget who and what caused it.
A We who try to replace the rule of law and the Constitution with a corrupt crone capitalism will not exceed China. A purely transactional US will not receive the support of everything its allies. The world needs a US competing and cooperating with China. This, unfortunately, will not do well.
