The descending spiral of democracy does not leave Starmer without margin to immigration

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Roula Khalaf, publisher of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

At least Keir Starmer is consistent in his ability to satisfy anyone. In a few minutes of the new Labour Immigration Plan presented, the right media confirmed that it would never be enough to pacify hardliners. In the meantime, the liberals found the tone too inflammatory, it really had to say “Island of strangers?” – And the content too harmful. It was too little, too late and too much.

Immigration hawks point out that sanctioned arrivals will still be in multiple six figures, while the plan did not offer anything about the thousands of asylum seekers arriving in small boats, a problem with appropriate conflicts with legal migration. After scrapping or resisting serious deterrent, work is being searched around Albania as “hub” for failed applicants.

Universities and social care went to new sidewalks, although these sectors have been openly open to abuse of visa conditions. There is little benefit because the aging of Britain requires more immigrants or higher taxes to provide the services it requires.

And yet, and yet. Starmer is right to see that there is something bigger. A significant section of the country has been telling leaders for years immigration It’s too high. Integration and voltage problems of services are not a far -right fantasy, even if it sinks cynically political Agitators. Although it can be disputed with specific measures, Starmer is right to act.

Surveys show that the United Kingdom is not anti-immigration, but the support has begun to slide. The numbers See that it is good for the economy fell from 53 percent in 2019 to 40 percent by 2024. There has been A similar fall in those who say immigration made the United Kingdom a better place to live. Although the British support immigration, they are pro-control and integration and the opinion that they have both eroded is not restricted to the right.

Starmer critics on the left say that he should stop running scared by the United Kingdom’s reform of Nigel Farage and, on the other hand, the case of immigration he previously believed. But apart from the fact that the strategy of “silent, you are wrong” has not been a triumph so far, you can lose two essential points. First, Starmer cannot pay attention until people are willing to listen to it, and second, excessive immigration is a real and corrosive problem. The previous layoffs and the broken promises played the midwife in Brexit and are able to feed the reform – or a conservative facsimile – unless Labor removes the bite of the matter.

Those who say Starmer must “make the argument” see politics as an episode of It West wingwhere a liberal leader can change the mind of the country with a single speech. This is not the real world and in no case is Starmer this leader.

First you have to win an audience by showing you are listening. Not everyone The fact that it manifests the fears of immigration is the hard line. Its political strategy is rooted in the belief that ordinary and affected voters can move away from irreconcilable.

But although Starmer has no choice, his strategy also risks to turn him into the latest victim of the united Kingdom of the United Kingdom of Democracy. The stagnation years have broken the central pact of liberal democracy with voters, which is the best system to offer prosperity for each generation. Failed promises of controlling immigration power speak of wider systemic failure that leads people to populist solutions, including Brexit, which inevitably fails.

This has left leaders constantly chasing an electorate the faith they have lost. The Government becomes a permanent campaign in which parties often take on positions that do not instinctively support, but they seem to be election wise. This state of constant mobilization is exemplified by labor deputies, who, up to four years away from their next account with the electorate, are in panic as if the elections were months.

No one can deny the terrible inheritance of work. But Starmer is part of this tendency of leaders who do not have the confidence to level with voters before they are elected. Labor ruled out the increase in personal taxes he knew he needed, forcing revenue hunting in ways that affected business. The main parts have also promised quality public services at discount prices; Immigration slows down without consequences; Painless expenditure cuts; And they can undo Brexit damage with only a modest reset.

All this obstructs the Mission to restore the economywhich is the precondition to rebuild this democratic compact. Empty promises and augmented rhetoric simply delve into the sense of discomfort.

Reconstructing the confidence and restoration of the economic compact are the only ways to reverse the descending spiral. But this is the trap. Cudging the immigration wound is a democratic need, but it will prevent its other basic missions. It is now reducing immigration with little qualification, although it is addressed with labor shortages, in search of an evasive sweet point that fulfills political goals without too much economic pain.

Starmer’s commitment is that any disadvantage is a price worth paying to prevent the country from being reformed. But it should remember the similar calculation of Rishi Sunak. Starmer faces the same frantic opposition and in work cannot recreate the sense of control without addressing small boats.

The United Kingdom has spent a decade pursuing the populist by going down. It rests on the concerns of the voters, but with sober solutions it is ultimately the only viable route for the moderates. However, I would like it to be safer.

Robert.shrimsley@ft.com