The rates are surprised: the United States is doing a billion more than expected

• Until this year, the US treasure has raised $ 15 billion more in rates than expected at the beginning As the importers ran for shipping before the highest rates came into force. But economists warn that it is too early to declare the victory of politics, as many expect the shipments to dry at the end of this year.

President Donald Trump’s fare policy quickly changed the economy, sent companies to panic and created wild swings in the markets. But there is at least one area where the fare surprise has been positive: the nation has obtained the highest rate revenue than expected until this year.

According to Penn-Wharton’s budget model, which uses treasure data and estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, the United States has almost taken $ 15 billion more in rates From this week on which the CBO had projected. The tariff income in April stood at $ 69 billion, substantially higher than $ 55 billion in which CBO was launched.

A combination of fares that have increased since January estimation of the CBO and importers that rush to get shipments before the highest rates have increased the rate, said Kent Smetters, director of Faculty of the Penn-Wharton budget model.

“Although higher rates have been announced by the end of the year, people have tried to obtain (imports) before,” he said.

Still, a swing of $ 15 billion, though insensuably large for most people, is a simple fall in the vast ocean of Federal budget. Last year, the federal government spent $ 6.75 trillion and gained $ 4.9 trillion income.

“For the fare revenue, it is certainly a lot, but in relation to the whole size of the budget, it is trivial at the moment,” Smetters said.

Despite the modest fare impulse, it is too early to know if the commercial policy works, Penn-Wharton said. For one, the particularities remain in flow: Many of the threatened Trump rates are currently Waiting until July Allow negotiations while others are rolls —So quietly. Meanwhile, China shipments are already slowed down significantlyAccording to ports of ports. Due to the time they take to the shipments to make it in the United States, however, economists warn that it will take for months or months to feel consumers.

Alexander Arnon, Penn-Wharton Policy Analysis Director, compared the tariff income pop to a peculiar statistical similar to the Negative Figure of the first quarter GDP This was strongly inclined to increase imports during the first three months of the year.

“This jump of customs tasks is, in fact, a sign of the interruption that is being caused here, not necessarily a sign that works,” said Arnon.

“Companies are achieved, which seems to be the dominant factor in promoting customs tasks,” said Arnon. “It is soon said that everything works as planned, although the rates have increased and the economy has not collapsed.”

During the next decade, Penn-Wharton projects the United States will win $ 5.1 trillion in revenue. Although all this money was reduced to the deficit, however, Smetters suggests that it would be a economic loss for the country.

)If clean imports are down, as we expect, this will have a great negative impact on our capacity to sell capital, “said Smetters. This means that there will be fewer US treasure bonus buyers, which will effectively increase interest rates and make loans more expensive.

“The cost of capital will increase quite a bit for North -American companies,” he said.

This story originally presented to Fortune.com